Updating electoral map

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If so, he'd be the first third-party candidate to win a state since George Wallace in 1968.As Donald Trump's standing in polls continues to slide, we've updated our electoral map to reflect his diminishing chances of winning the White House.But if you think the Donald Trump-Hillary Clinton race is the craziest in our history, you'll be relieved or horrified to learn that we've survived even crazier ones... Now that the presidential debates have finished, we've updated our electoral map once again.The big change: Arizona now moves to the "toss-up" column.Until now, we've listed the state as "likely Republican," reflecting the partisan lean it has long had.In all, our map shows Clinton ahead in states with 308 electoral votes -- 38 more than the 270 needed to win the presidency. Five states, with 56 electoral votes, are toss-ups.

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Because the map indicates probabilities and not margins, a state is intensely shaded when margins are consistent across multiple polls, even when those margins are small.

The number at the top of the map indicates the sum of electoral votes in individual states, giving leaners full credit.

Note that this is from the electoral vote totals given in the banner, which represent the median of all possible outcomes, which number in the quadrillions.

Like our last update, this one shifted more states away from Donald Trump.

The biggest shift: Florida, the nation's largest swing state, is now light blue, as we've moved it from the battleground category to a Democratic lean.

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